Analytics
Resolved Yes on 7 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 93.6%. Yes opened at 88% on 6 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2025 to 7 Aug 2025, the highest close was 93.6% on 7 Aug 2025 and the lowest 88% on 6 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.6 points up, to 93.6% on 7 Aug 2025. $1.66M traded over the market's life.
328 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 9, 12:57 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 6 Aug 2025 – 7 Aug 2025, chart shows 84%–96%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2025 | 88.0% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | 93.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Drowerz | No | 80K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 76.93K |
| Hyph | No | 40.01K |
| Steponme | No | 16.35K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public. For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-day-will-gpt-5-be-released-on
| Gigachad01 | No | 12.29K |
| Abahshdudhw050005000500bahaudhdb | No | 11K |
| futureisyours | No | 10.81K |
| emyx02 | No | 10.5K |
| blubtheblub | No | 8.67K |
| Alanschezar | No | 7.67K |
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