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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Yes | buy | 42.53 | $0.941 | $40 | Jun 26, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 88.88 |
| $0.981 |
| $87.19 |
| Jun 26, 2026 |
 GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Yes | buy | 36.45 | $0.710 | $25.88 | Jun 26, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Yes | buy | 56.9 | $0.703 | $40 | Jun 26, 2026 |
 Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31?Yes | buy | 31 | $0.750 | $23.25 | Jun 23, 2026 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No | sell | 86.58 | $0.995 | $86.15 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Yes | buy | 120 | $0.526 | $63.07 | Jun 13, 2026 |
 Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 21 | $0.540 | $11.34 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.520 | $52 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.510 | $4.08 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 48 | $0.497 | $23.87 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 18 | $0.486 | $8.75 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 69 | $0.410 | $28.29 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.400 | $16 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No | buy | 86.58 | $0.924 | $80 | Jun 11, 2026 |
 Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.520 | $10.4 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Yes | sell | 30 | $0.003 | $0.09 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 5%?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.001 | $0.2 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes | sell | 199.04 | $0.005 | $1 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Yes | buy | 240 | $0.540 | $129.6 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County?Yes | sell | 53.91 | $0.029 | $1.55 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?No | sell | 40 | $0.962 | $38.48 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | sell | 110 | $0.900 | $99 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County?Yes | buy | 53.91 | $0.760 | $40.97 | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 5%?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.053 | $10.6 | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.370 | $11.1 | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | buy | 60 | $0.410 | $24.6 | May 24, 2026 |
 Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?Yes | buy | 130 | $0.800 | $104 | May 20, 2026 |
 Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Yes | buy | 32.17 | $0.900 | $28.95 | May 20, 2026 |
 Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.489 | $14.67 | May 20, 2026 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | sell | 144.3 | $0.250 | $36.08 | May 20, 2026 |
| SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?SpaceX | buy | 88.89 | $0.900 | $80 | May 20, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | buy | 50 | $0.670 | $33.5 | May 18, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No | buy | 50 | $0.550 | $27.5 | May 18, 2026 |
 Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?No | buy | 200 | $0.995 | $199 | May 15, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?No | buy | 40 | $0.680 | $27.2 | May 15, 2026 |
 Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.920 | $92 | May 12, 2026 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | buy | 144.3 | $0.208 | $30 | May 12, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No | buy | 44.44 | $0.900 | $40 | May 12, 2026 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Yes | buy | 54.79 | $0.730 | $40 | May 12, 2026 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes | buy | 2.4 | $0.417 | $1 | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes | buy | 196.64 | $0.417 | $82 | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes | sell | 200.2 | $0.438 | $87.65 | Apr 20, 2026 |
 Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.920 | $92 | Apr 13, 2026 |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes | buy | 302.11 | $0.993 | $300 | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No | buy | 5.95 | $0.840 | $5 | Apr 12, 2026 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes | buy | 200.2 | $0.250 | $50 | Apr 9, 2026 |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes | buy | 158.73 | $0.630 | $100 | Mar 26, 2026 |