Latest trade
Oct 13, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 21, 1:19 PM UTC.
Analytics
Earnest-Warning has made $159.92 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 12 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-10-05 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Oct 13, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 21, 1:19 PM UTC.
$32.5 median trade
Its latest 32 trades covered 29 markets; 90.6% were buys. They run from Jan 23, 2026 UTC to Oct 13, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | Yes | 324.68 | $0.154 | $45.62 | -$4.38 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes | buy | 324.68 | $0.154 | $50 | 7d ago |
 |
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-10-05 10:28 UTC
Polymarket public position response
1 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-21 13:19 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
32 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-21 13:19 UTC
polymarket positions
13 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-10-05 10:28 UTC
Last checked just now.
Winning positions brought in $683.71 and losing ones cost $133.24 across 12 settled positions. 75% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $417.98 on “Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” (Yes); the largest loss, $86.78 on “Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?” (No).
Its most recent trade on record was on 13 Oct 2026. It has traded 29 markets. Its open positions are worth $45.62 across 1 market.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| buy |
| 62.5 |
| $0.640 |
| $40 |
| 16d ago |
 Trump renames AI by September 30?No | buy | 93.33 | $0.750 | $70 | 28d ago |
 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | sell | 94.33 | $0.640 | $60.37 | 29d ago |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | buy | 94.34 | $0.530 | $50 | Sep 14, 2026 UTC |
 Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?Yes | buy | 123.53 | $0.340 | $42 | Sep 1, 2026 UTC |
 Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No | sell | 312.29 | $0.381 | $119.02 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No | buy | 312.3 | $0.640 | $200 | Jul 20, 2026 UTC |
 Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 377.36 | $0.053 | $20 | Jun 25, 2026 UTC |
 Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 37.74 | $0.530 | $20 | Jun 25, 2026 UTC |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.160 | $80 | Jun 9, 2026 UTC |
 Thunder vs. PistonsThunder | buy | 20.83 | $0.240 | $5 | Feb 26, 2026 UTC |
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?No | buy | 75 | $0.400 | $30 | Feb 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?Yes | buy | 222.22 | $0.090 | $20 | Feb 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Yes | buy | 181.82 | $0.110 | $20 | Feb 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?Yes | buy | 176.47 | $0.170 | $30 | Feb 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?Yes | buy | 1.11K | $0.009 | $10 | Feb 20, 2026 UTC |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No | buy | 46.05 | $0.760 | $35 | Feb 20, 2026 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 81.08 | $0.370 | $30 | Feb 1, 2026 UTC |
 Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?No | buy | 27.03 | $0.370 | $10 | Feb 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?No | buy | 40 | $0.250 | $10 | Feb 1, 2026 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?No | buy | 78.95 | $0.570 | $45 | Feb 1, 2026 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No | buy | 84.51 | $0.710 | $60 | Feb 1, 2026 UTC |
 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3?Yes | buy | 25.51 | $0.392 | $10 | Feb 1, 2026 UTC |
 Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?Yes | sell | 90.9 | $0.180 | $16.37 | Jan 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?Yes | buy | 90.91 | $0.220 | $20 | Jan 25, 2026 UTC |
 U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?No | buy | 69.44 | $0.360 | $25 | Jan 24, 2026 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 51.95 | $0.770 | $40 | Jan 24, 2026 UTC |
 Will the US not strike another country before 2027?Yes | buy | 2.71K | $0.007 | $19 | Jan 24, 2026 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No | buy | 63.29 | $0.790 | $50 | Jan 24, 2026 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No | buy | 56.82 | $0.880 | $50 | Jan 23, 2026 UTC |
 Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?No | buy | 67 | $0.746 | $50 | Jan 23, 2026 UTC |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 4 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.