Analytics
Yes is at 11.5%, down 16 points from 27.5% when the market opened on 1 Apr 2026.
Across the 199 daily closes on record from 1 Apr 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (15 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51% on 24 Apr 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 19 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 12%; a month before, 16%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 27.5% on 29 Apr 2026.
$22.22 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $13.93K since listing. The order book holds $523.73, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 439 trades, $904.2 bought Yes and $4.32K bought No.
The largest Yes position is LlamaLoco0000 with 2.5K shares; the largest No position is ok18capital with 911. Ten wallets hold 72.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 199 points, 1 Apr 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Apr 2026 | 27.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 11.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 2.47K |
| ok18capital | No | 911.34 |
| aenews2 | Yes | 773.54 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City. A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/x-banned-in-any-european-country-by-december-31
| HerlihyM92 |
| No |
| 582 |
| Tidy-Instruction | No | 466.9 |
| Pointed-Rancher | No | 371.09 |
| Devoted-Route | Yes | 266.59 |
| StarMaster | No | 265.69 |
| boomboomfan | No | 246.49 |
| Insubstantial-Empire | No | 240.7 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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