Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 14 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 261 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2024 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 21.5% on 15 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 30 Jul 2025. $114.35K traded over the market's life.
106 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 1, 6:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 261 points, 14 Nov 2024 – 1 Aug 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2024 | 19.5% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ladysolsol | Yes | 2.15K |
| SpiderManos | Yes | 1.25K |
| news-trader | Yes | 1K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if if is officially announced that that X (formerly Twitter) and Truth Social, or if X or its parent company Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) have agreed to merge, by July 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The announcement must indicate that the two organizations have agreed to combine their operations. This could be a legal merger where they form one entity, a joint venture, or an acquisition of one by the other. An official announcement before the end date of an X/Truth Social merger will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if or when the merger actually occurs, however statements merely suggesting that a merger/acquisition may occur or which express intent will not qualify. The resolution source will be official statements from X and/or Truth Social/Trump Media & Technology Group, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/x-and-truth-social-merger-announced-before-august
| BULLET | Yes | 951.51 |
| Saruman77 | Yes | 837.16 |
| jim11 | Yes | 681.82 |
| PMGPMG | Yes | 625 |
| Danmoney | Yes | 468.79 |
| Chumito | Yes | 443.15 |
| updatetg | Yes | 350 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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