Analytics
Trading ended on 27 Oct 2026 with Yes at 88%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 46 daily closes on record from 9 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 94% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 16.5% on 4 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 23%; a month before, 27%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 20.5% on 10 Sep 2026.
5-6% is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu vote share?”, ahead of 6-7% at 7.9%.
$6.98K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is bacs2000 with 1K shares; the largest No position is lava-lava with 1.4K. Ten wallets hold 86.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 30, 3:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 46 points, 9 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Sep 2026 | 44.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 88.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| lava-lava | No | 1.41K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.28K |
| bacs2000 | Yes | 1.04K |
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-election-yisrael-beiteinu-vote-share
| thanksforplayin |
| Yes |
| 898.07 |
| HolyMoses7VerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 743.73 |
| rocky42005 | No | 557 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 459.02 |
| rontro28 | Yes | 419.91 |
| 2B9S | No | 287 |
| Bla-485 | Yes | 187.4 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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