Analytics
Yes is at 99.4%, up 73 points from 26% when the market opened on 9 Sep 2026.
Across the 45 daily closes on record from 9 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.6% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 10.6% on 8 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 33.8%; a month before, 15.3%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 20.5% on 15 Sep 2026.
16-18% is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “Israel Election: Yashar vote share?”, ahead of <16% at 0.2%.
$2.21K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $8.4K since listing. The order book holds $11.32K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 125 trades, $3.64K bought Yes and $475.49 bought No; the largest was a $1.46K buy of Yes at 89.2¢.
The largest Yes position is marchonnow with 1.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.8K. Ten wallets hold 78.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 30 Nov 2026, 32 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:51 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 45 points, 9 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Sep 2026 | 26.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 99.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| marchonnow | Yes | 1.82K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.76K |
| megaforest | Yes | 511.43 |
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-election-yashar-vote-share
| E10ESpoascknasjdhajdDas12t |
| No |
| 507.25 |
| HolyMoses7VerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 420.86 |
| Sticky-Closing | Yes | 345.89 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 343.99 |
| qqqppp-l1 | No | 204.62 |
| thanksforplayin | Yes | 154.04 |
| Bla-485 | Yes | 147.22 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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