Analytics
Resolved Yes on 7 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99%. Yes opened at 53.5% on 25 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 25 Sep 2026 to 7 Oct 2026, the highest close was 99% on 7 Oct 2026 and the lowest 38% on 3 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 56 points up, to 96% on 5 Oct 2026. $6.81K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 8, 8:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 25 Sep 2026 – 7 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | 53.5% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 99.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 582.67 |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | No | 70 |
| PPMT | No | 30 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the first round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-turnout
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| No |
| 4.95 |
| balthazar | No | 0.01 |
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