Analytics
Yes is at 10.8%, down 3.3 points from 14% when the market opened on 8 Oct 2026.
Across the 15 daily closes on record from 8 Oct 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 39% on 20 Oct 2026 and the lowest 10.8% on 25 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 37.5%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 19% on 21 Oct 2026.
Vicentinho <4% ranks second of the 5 outcomes in “Tocantins Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory”. Vicentinho 4%+ leads at 83.5%; Dorinha 7%+ is at 4.7%.
$184.94 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.1K since listing. The order book holds $1.7K, with a 19.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 76 trades, $330.2 bought Yes and $446.47 bought No.
The largest Yes position is balthazar with 480 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 681. Ten wallets hold 97.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 26 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 6:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 8 Oct 2026 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2026 | 14.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 10.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 681.25 |
| balthazar | Yes | 479.72 |
| AJSV | Yes | 206.24 |
The second round of the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election as published by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tocantins-governor-election-second-round-margin-of-victory
| Antony82 |
| No |
| 96.04 |
| Rougrot | Yes | 70 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 63.16 |
| gfdgfvfvssdd | No | 40 |
| Cosmic Raven 18CF | Yes | 30 |
| rianstanley | Yes | 30 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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