Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 4.8% on 22 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 71 daily closes on record from 22 Apr 2026 to 1 Jul 2026, the highest close was 4.8% on 22 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Jun 2026. $765.85K traded over the market's life.
108 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 71 points, 22 Apr 2026 – 1 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | 4.8% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Crypto-Well | Yes | 5.17K |
| morilun | Yes | 3K |
| Doo88 | Yes | 2.8K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027
| Decisive-Transom | Yes | 2K |
| LukeDelta | Yes | 2K |
| Dull-Simplicity | Yes | 1.67K |
| labistiiia | Yes | 1K |
| norealtime | Yes | 1K |
| ziet22 | Yes | 1K |
| Rude-Wire | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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