Will US unemployment be 4.3% in December 2024?

economyResolved

No, settled Jan 10, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$15.3K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 10, 2025 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 10 Jan 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 81%. Yes opened at 39% on 12 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 30 daily closes on record from 12 Dec 2024 to 10 Jan 2025, the highest close was 42.5% on 5 Jan 2025 and the lowest 19% on 10 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 19% on 10 Jan 2025. $15.27K traded over the market's life.

5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 5:07 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 12 Dec 2024 – 10 Jan 2025, chart shows 10%–50%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Dec 2024	39.0%
10 Jan 2025	19.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	3.93K
Rapid Voyager 82D2	Yes	10
AkehoshiAira	Yes	2
FYUIyjdgf	No	0.05

5 of 5 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for December 2024. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question. This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for December 2024 is 4.3%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”. The next data release is scheduled for January 10, 2025, 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.