Analytics
Resolved Yes on 28 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 81.5%. Yes opened at 68.5% on 20 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 40 daily closes on record from 20 Jan 2026 to 28 Feb 2026, the highest close was 81.5% on 28 Feb 2026 and the lowest 59.5% on 14 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 69% on 27 Jan 2026. $582.87K traded over the market's life.
81 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 1, 4:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 40 points, 20 Jan 2026 – 28 Feb 2026, chart shows 50%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Jan 2026 | 68.5% |
| 28 Feb 2026 | 81.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DFZ | No | 5.44K |
| BerkshireHahaway | No | 2.32K |
| Imaginative-Technology | No | 1.15K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/usisrael-strikes-iran-by
| No |
| 300.99 |
| Skinny-Class | No | 299.98 |
| Epstein | No | 263.33 |
| Dell.hefty.4D | No | 212.75 |
| RW185 | Yes | 123.46 |
| Coral Raven 3C63 | No | 100.01 |
| 5atka | No | 99.99 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
