Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 91.5%. Yes opened at 43% on 30 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 112 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2025 to 20 Feb 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 43% on 30 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.8% on 29 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 17.5% on 31 Oct 2025. $48.42K traded over the market's life.
51 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 21, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 112 points, 30 Oct 2025 – 20 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2025 | 43.0% |
| 20 Feb 2026 | 8.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 10K |
| CleverHans | Yes | 526.74 |
| heuer | Yes | 477.76 |
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025
| Yes |
| 222.22 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 221 |
| Elias.Thornwell | Yes | 159.59 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| edamamezi | Yes | 150 |
| sunshy | Yes | 149.86 |
| rvbnmky | Yes | 144.63 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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