Analytics
Resolved No on 23 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 2 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 145 daily closes on record from 2 Aug 2025 to 23 Dec 2025, the highest close was 50.5% on 2 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 21% on 3 Aug 2025. $206.53K traded over the market's life.
83 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 145 points, 2 Aug 2025 – 23 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2025 | 50.5% |
| 23 Dec 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 40.88K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 3.73K |
| Formal-Jackal | Yes | 3K |
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2025 scheduled for October 30, 2025. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q3-2025
| Yes |
| 2.67K |
| startrader | Yes | 1.98K |
| yotomaya | Yes | 715 |
| coinfun | Yes | 502.77 |
| Zohrandi | Yes | 500 |
| chastaine | Yes | 500 |
| vaderrs | Yes | 500 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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