Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by August 31?

politicsResolved

Yes, settled Aug 13, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$6.3K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Aug 13, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy Oil, gold and commodities

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 13 Aug 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 15 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 15 Jul 2026 to 13 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.9% on 13 Aug 2026 and the lowest 50% on 15 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 46 points up, to 96% on 16 Jul 2026. $6.3K traded over the market's life.

9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 15 Jul 2026 – 13 Aug 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
15 Jul 2026	50.0%
13 Aug 2026	99.9%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
PITON2026	No	200
Violet Vector B233	No	139.55
guladdin	No	130

9 of 9 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before August 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.