Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Feb 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 50% on 23 Jan 2024. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 23 Jan 2024 to 16 Feb 2024, the highest close was 50% on 23 Jan 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 16 Feb 2024. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 10.5% on 24 Jan 2024. $237.4K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 17, 5:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 23 Jan 2024 – 16 Feb 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2024 | 50.0% |
| 16 Feb 2024 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between January 22 and February 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military attack" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-us-attack-iran-by-february-15
| BasedKing | Yes | 170.53 |
| Rednaxela | Yes | 141.89 |
| Gorgonzola | Yes | 136.36 |
| jperch453 | Yes | 50 |
| Spacecabbage | Yes | 48.25 |
| CarterAdams | Yes | 14.29 |
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