Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 54% and 56%?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 10, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$22.7K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 10, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 10 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 30% on 28 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2026 to 10 Feb 2026, the highest close was 35.5% on 8 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 10 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 0.4% on 10 Feb 2026. $22.71K traded over the market's life.

31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 11, 8:25 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 28 Jan 2026 – 10 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Jan 2026	30.0%
10 Feb 2026	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	10.29K
kandinsky	Yes	2.5K
Conscious-Lox	Yes	699.57
tarozari	Yes	349.85

10 of 31 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve based on the official voter turnout rate for the single-seat constituency ballot (小選挙区), defined as the total number of ballots cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of the election are not known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as reported by the Japanese government, specifically Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/senkyo/senkyo_s/data/index.html).