Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 79.5%. Yes opened at 37% on 15 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 15 Jul 2026 to 17 Jul 2026, the highest close was 37% on 15 Jul 2026 and the lowest 20.5% on 17 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 25.5% on 16 Jul 2026. $5.38K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 18, 2:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 15 Jul 2026 – 17 Jul 2026, chart shows 15%–45%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | 37.0% |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 20.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.74K |
| Quarrelsome-Branch | Yes | 288.83 |
| singularityman | Yes | 147 |
| lineth | Yes | 110.51 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a Speech to the Nation on July 16, 2026 at 9PM ET (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116914147668764804). This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Speech to the Nation. The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Speech to the Nation until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the start of Trump’s Speech to the Nation is cancelled or delayed beyond July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-long-will-trumps-speech-to-the-nation-be-20260713212218644
| Experienced-Paradise | Yes | 100 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 48.65 |
| aaghkdd | Yes | 41 |
| balthazar | Yes | 40.09 |
| galhammerman | Yes | 20 |
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