Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 50% on 27 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 94.5% on 21 Feb 2026 and the low 0.1% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 2% on 26 Mar 2026. $12.83M traded over the market's life.
1,000 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 7:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 131 points, 27 Nov 2025 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Nov 2025 | 50.0% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| fine2026 | Yes | 1.45M |
| troim | Yes | 60K |
| BT-polymarket | Yes | 43.29K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-visit-china-by
| Yes |
| 40.98K |
| Cosmic Comet 31FC | Yes | 26.23K |
| willy1am | Yes | 22.41K |
| Light-Explorer | Yes | 20.34K |
| Grubby-Competitor | Yes | 15.41K |
| predictgeek | Yes | 14.03K |
| eszettss | Yes | 11.83K |
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