Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 50% on 14 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 130 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 1 Apr 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 14 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 31 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 34% on 15 Nov 2025. $104.08K traded over the market's life.
98 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 6:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 130 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 1 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 50.0% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MagicEightBall | Yes | 5K |
| AlexCimmeria | Yes | 4.08K |
| Vandalpt | Yes | 2.01K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by October 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent. For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-send-tomahawk-to-ukraine
| Yes |
| 1.05K |
| EvilLarry- | Yes | 700 |
| BooleanProphet | Yes | 531.61 |
| Ignorant-Oven | Yes | 346.77 |
| ACara | Yes | 336.62 |
| Married-Democracy | Yes | 301.25 |
| boronia | Yes | 294.12 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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