Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.6%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 27 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 47% on 3 Sep 2025 and the lowest 2.4% on 29 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 37 points up, to 47% on 3 Sep 2025. $5.42K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Aug 2025 – 1 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2025 | 16.5% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 3.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal action or makes an official announcement directing the deployment of National Guard troops to the listed city by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions. Qualifying actions include but are not limited to: - A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city. - An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city. - A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized). - An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city. Non-qualifying actions include: - Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement - Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city. - Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location. - A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-cities-will-trump-send-the-national-guard-to-by-september-30
| SVOI | Yes | 0.01 |
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