Analytics
Resolved Yes on 23 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 47%. Yes opened at 66% on 30 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 30 Sep 2026 to 21 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 78% on 4 Oct 2026 and the lowest 25% on 13 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 25% on 13 Oct 2026. $2.74K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 24, 7:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 30 Sep 2026 – 21 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | 66.0% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 47.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| flywheelpoly | No | 280 |
| Feline-Bell | No | 80 |
| 73f44919CE0143F0e9a05F531f7C8B15c8a483a0. | No | 79.98 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 'mention' will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-in-october-2026
| PadreMaronno | No | 60 |
| Timely-Suite | No | 55 |
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
| Golden Meteor CFE1 | No | 50 |
| conormurphy | No | 40.37 |
| 0xs55555 | No | 30 |
| Raidloner | No | 14.29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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