Analytics
Yes is at 40.5%, down 18 points from 59% when the market opened on 30 Sep 2026.
Across the 26 daily closes on record from 30 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 70% on 3 Oct 2026 and the lowest 27.5% on 1 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 52.5%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 27.5% on 1 Oct 2026.
Neurotic is the favourite of the 3 outcomes in “What will Trump say in October?”, ahead of Weave at 37%.
$83.5 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $285.5 since listing. The order book holds $69.3, with a 69.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Quarrelsome-Branch with 90 shares; the largest No position is 0xtrador with 84.
Trading closes on 31 Oct 2026, 3 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 30 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | 59.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 48.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Quarrelsome-Branch | Yes | 90 |
| 0xtrador | No | 83.5 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 51 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 'mention' will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-in-october-2026
| youtube-trader |
| No |
| 30 |
| ruletheworldPM | No | 30 |
| a5533 | Yes | 20 |
| pad6 | No | 18 |
| romanew-7-spread05 | Yes | 12.5 |
| arehovbro | No | 12 |
| theflamingodancestheflamenco | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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