Analytics
Resolved No on 14 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.9%. Yes opened at 18% on 10 Jun 2025. Before it settled, the high was 18% on 10 Jun 2025 and the low 2.8% on 13 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 7.5% on 11 Jun 2025. $18.41K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 15, 8:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 5 points · 10 Jun 2025 – 14 Jun 2025 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jun 2025 | 18.0% |
| 14 Jun 2025 | 4.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bundt-cake | No | 0.02 |
| GaySanta | No | 0.02 |
| siick | No | 0.01 |
| SYSY.CN | No | 0.01 |
| trump.slonic | No | 0.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration formally fully cancels, rescinds, withdraws, or transfers control of the federalized National Guard deployment to Los Angeles by June 13, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, there must be an official action or statement by the White House, Department of Defense, or National Guard Bureau confirming that the federal deployment has been canceled or rescinded, or that operational control has been formally returned to the State of California. If a court orders the Trump administration to end or reverse the deployment, this market will only resolve to "Yes" if the administration complies with the order and takes official action to implement it. A court order without compliance will not alone qualify. A confirmed withdrawal of troops from Los Angeles will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official U.S. government statements however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-return-control-the-national-guard-by-friday
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