Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 2.5% on 23 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 23 Feb 2026 to 25 Feb 2026, the highest close was 2.5% on 23 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 25 Feb 2026. $35.37K traded over the market's life.
48 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 26, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 23 Feb 2026 – 25 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Feb 2026 | 2.5% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.17K |
| FabriceRug | Yes | 1.56K |
| yesworld28 | Yes | 1.06K |
| S888 | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812 This market will resolve according to the first listed term Donald Trump says during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled delivery of the 2026 State of the Union address. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None". If Donald Trump does not say any listed term during the event, this market will resolve to "None". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-first-during-the-2026-state-of-the-union-address
| Sbezhat | Yes | 1K |
| Bookie | Yes | 785.56 |
| kdvks | Yes | 748 |
| MenaD1 | Yes | 678.26 |
| CYKUTECH | Yes | 555.56 |
| HugeSilver | Yes | 500 |
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