Analytics
Yes is at 10%, down 21 points from 30.5% when the market opened on 5 Feb 2026.
Across the 239 daily closes on record from 5 Feb 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (27 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 33% on 4 Mar 2026 and the lowest 4% on 29 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9%; a month before, 7.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 14.5% on 6 Feb 2026.
$21.82K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $16.02K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 398 trades, $1.33K bought Yes and $5.74K bought No.
The largest Yes position is herewe with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is Crimson Scout DF5C with 1.8K. Ten wallets hold 63.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 239 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 30.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 10.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Crimson Scout DF5C | No | 1.76K |
| herewe | Yes | 1.11K |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 426.01 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-nationalize-elections
| Ondra |
| Yes |
| 408.61 |
| SitsToPee | Yes | 369.97 |
| babyshark. | No | 350 |
| Forfunzies | No | 335.84 |
| The-Joker | No | 272.4 |
| Eia | Yes | 228.35 |
| Darling-Top | No | 224 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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