Analytics
“Will Trump lead by 0-0.4 points on August 9?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 9?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 9 Aug 2024. $20.53K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 7 daily price points from Aug 3, 2024 UTC to Aug 9, 2024 UTC (Yes between 0.9% and 34.0%); 3 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 210 recent public fills from 42 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 7 points · 3 Aug 2024 – 9 Aug 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2024 | 21.0% |
| 9 Aug 2024 | 0.9% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 15.09K |
| Raffles | Yes | 200 |
| Alex29 | Yes |
This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harrisas of August 9, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average margin between Trump and Kamala Harris is between 0.0 (inclusive) and Trump +0.4 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The RCP Polling Average will be checked on August 9, 12:00 PM ET. Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used. If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is not available by August 12, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of August 9, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kamala-vs-trump-polling-margin-on-august-9
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
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Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard