Will Trump lead by 1.5 or more points on August 9?

politicsResolved

No, settled Aug 9, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$56.2K

Resolved

Settled

Aug 9, 2024 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved No on 9 Aug 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 36% on 3 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 3 Aug 2024 to 9 Aug 2024, the highest close was 36% on 3 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.4% on 9 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 13% on 4 Aug 2024. $56.16K traded over the market's life.

22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 10, 4:40 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 3 Aug 2024 – 9 Aug 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
3 Aug 2024	36.0%
9 Aug 2024	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	15.09K
Jovialgent	Yes	4.35
MewKitty	Yes	1.43
Astig	Yes	1.43

10 of 22 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of August 9, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average is Trump +1.5 or more percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The RCP Polling Average will be checked on August 9, 12:00 PM ET. Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used. If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by August 12, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of August 9, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.