Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Aug 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 77.3%. Yes opened at 36% on 3 Aug 2024. Before it settled, the high was 75% on 8 Aug 2024 and the low 6% on 4 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 52 points down, to 22.8% on 9 Aug 2024. $48.16K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 10, 4:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 7 points · 3 Aug 2024 – 9 Aug 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2024 | 36.0% |
| 9 Aug 2024 | 22.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 15.09K |
| Heleana | Yes | 4.17 |
| Boe-Jiden | Yes | 0.02 |
| Kalags | Yes | 0.02 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of August 9, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average margin is Kamala +1 or more percentage points.. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The RCP Polling Average will be checked on August 9, 12:00 PM ET. Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used. If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is not available by August 12, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of August 9, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kamala-vs-trump-polling-margin-on-august-9
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