Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.2%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 4 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 4 Oct 2025 to 11 Nov 2025, the highest close was 26.5% on 16 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 26.5% on 16 Oct 2025. $18K traded over the market's life.
28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 15, 3:12 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 4 Oct 2025 – 11 Nov 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2025 | 19.5% |
| 11 Nov 2025 | 1.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 1.69K |
| Shadowsyl | Yes | 588.13 |
| cynical-reason | Yes | 447.48 |
| Tender-Trolley | Yes | 300 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The market will resolve based on the listed date of the report. This market may stay open until November 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET to allow for a qualifying report to be made public. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however , a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-invoke-war-powers-again-by-october-31
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 130 |
| muskoxen | Yes | 122.22 |
| c4-4c | Yes | 100 |
| Cultivated-Alley | Yes | 81.8 |
| crypticcaller | Yes | 62.5 |
| enslaved | Yes | 50 |
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