Will Trump impose large tariffs in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. weighted average tariff, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, reaches 5% or greater for any quarter of 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve once the dataset has been updated to reflect data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4. If no Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4 2025 is released by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, specifically the the average tariff paid as defined here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. Revisions to the data made after the resolution will not be considered.