What is the “Will Trump impose large tariffs in 2025?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will Trump impose large tariffs in 2025? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved Yes on 30 Jul 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. weighted average tariff, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, reaches 5% or greater for any quarter of 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve once the dataset has been updated to reflect data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4. If no Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4 2025 is released by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, specifically the…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

20 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Aug 1, 12:50 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-2025) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved Yes: Will Trump impose large tariffs in 2025?

Market referencewill-trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-2025Updated Aug 1, 2025 UTC

Resolved

Yes · settled Jul 30, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$31.4K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jul 30, 2025 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Aug 1, 2025 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Aug 1, 2025 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

Yes

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

93%

Yes / No shares

35.29 / 2.13K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

328

Wallets

180

Loaded notional

$15.75K

Yes buy at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Jul 30, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

110

Move

+13 pts

Range

77.0% - 98.4%

Apr 12, 12:00 AM UTC to Jul 30, 12:00 AM UTC

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Jul 30, 12:00 AM UTC

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Jul 30, 12:00 AM UTC	98.4%	98.4%
Jul 29, 12:00 AM UTC	97.7%	97.7%
Jul 28, 12:00 AM UTC	97.5%	97.5%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will Trump impose large tariffs in 2025?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will Trump impose large tariffs in 2025? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 100.0¢ and No at 0.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 100.0% for Yes and 0.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved Yes on 30 Jul 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. weighted average tariff, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, reaches 5% or greater for any quarter of 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve once the dataset has been updated to reflect data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4. If no Advance Estimate GDP report for Q4 2025 is released by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, specifically the…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Bucket

Mid

Spread

Volume

Trades

Jul 30, 12:00 AM UTC

98.4%

Jul 29, 12:00 AM UTC

97.7%

Jul 28, 12:00 AM UTC

97.5%