Analytics
Resolved No on 14 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 25% on 1 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 349 daily closes on record from 1 Feb 2025 to 14 Jan 2026, the highest close was 37% on 10 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 14 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 0.3% on 14 Jan 2026. $239K traded over the market's life.
136 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 15, 4:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 349 points, 1 Feb 2025 – 14 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2025 | 25.0% |
| 14 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 13.97K |
| synoptic | Yes | 4.29K |
| arbitragesus | Yes | 2.91K |
The U.S. federal budget deficit for December 2024 was $86,731,619,013.29 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2025 than in December 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-elon-reduce-the-deficit-in-2025
| xlefgerx | Yes | 2K |
| Notable-Median | Yes | 1.21K |
| alilili1 | Yes | 1K |
| Moseslsh | Yes | 977.62 |
| CEO4FT | Yes | 800 |
| FreeCityIndividual | Yes | 723 |
| azadam | Yes | 511.04 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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