Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 41% on 18 Apr 2025. Before it settled, the high was 41% on 18 Apr 2025 and the low 0.9% on 29 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 30.5% on 19 Apr 2025. $32.52K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 75 points · 18 Apr 2025 – 1 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2025 | 41.0% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| topl | Yes | 820.9 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 488 |
| WhitneyHouston | Yes | 382.62 |
| tixon | Yes | 16.67 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On January 14, Donald Trump announced that he would create an "External Revenue Service" tasked with collecting tariffs and other forms of revenue from foreign nations. You can read more about that here: https://apnews.com/article/irs-trump-tax-revenues-tariffs-eef2ab6930a8672a418af27f61efaed8 This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump as President of the United States signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that has the effect of creating an External Revenue Service. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any law or executive action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. The title of such an agency may vary, however any agency established with the express purpose of collecting tariffs and/or other forms of revenue from foreign nations will count toward a "Yes" resolution. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-create-external-revenue-service-before-july
| Restakeme | Yes | 10 |
| gamerdan2nd | No | 1.28 |
| GaySanta | No | 0.02 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 0.02 |
| caroline.name | Yes | 0.01 |
| SuARas | No | 0.01 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
