Analytics
Yes is at 31.5%, up 12 points from 20% when the market opened on 15 Oct 2026.
Across the 9 daily closes on record from 15 Oct 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 31.5% on 25 Oct 2026 and the lowest 20% on 15 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 21%. Its largest one-day move was 5 points up, to 27.5% on 20 Oct 2026.
6-9 points behind ranks second of the 5 outcomes in “Troy Jackson runs behind Hannah Pingree by...? (First Round)”. 0-3 points behind leads at 35%; Runs ahead is at 21%.
$135.34 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.17K since listing. The order book holds $28.02K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 129 trades, $259.1 bought Yes and $616.68 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 158 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 481. Ten wallets hold 96% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 10 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 11:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 15 Oct 2026 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 15%–35%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | 20.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 31.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 481.48 |
| AJSV | Yes | 157.92 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 122.08 |
The 2026 Maine general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Maine, and Hannah Pingree is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Maine. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Troy Jackson’s vote share in the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election falls below Hannah Pingree’s vote share in the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election. If Jackson’s vote share exceeds Pingree’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.” If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Maine Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/troy-jackson-runs-behind-hannah-pingree-by-first-round
| Specialist200303 |
| Yes |
| 79.93 |
| Shy-Note | Yes | 70.86 |
| POB-T | No | 30.91 |
| yoyo424269 | Yes | 29.57 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 20 |
| haouibao | Yes | 20 |
| vonhalen | Yes | 14.28 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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