Analytics
Yes is at 18%, down 7 points from 25% when the market opened on 10 Sep 2026.
Across the 41 daily closes on record from 10 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 25% on 10 Sep 2026 and the lowest 7% on 19 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 19%; a month before, 10.5%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 10.5% on 11 Sep 2026.
$20 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.16K since listing. The order book holds $246.4, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 115 trades, $269.47 bought Yes and $519.78 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 163 shares; the largest No position is wallet-account-test with 373. Ten wallets hold 88.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 10 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | 25.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 18.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| wallet-account-test | No | 373 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 162.97 |
| rocky42018 | Yes | 126.99 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tristan Buckmaster files a lawsuit against OpenAI, or any of its subsidiaries, executives, or employees, by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lawsuit in which Tristan Buckmaster is a named plaintiff, alone or jointly with others, will qualify. An announcement of intent to sue or a legal threat will not qualify; a lawsuit must actually be filed in court. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tristan-buckmaster-sues-openai-by
| misha-d1 | Yes | 50 |
| EdgeHustler | Yes | 45.45 |
| lissartter | No | 39.02 |
| Solar Quasar C35A | Yes | 34.48 |
| yetiyetiyeti | No | 34 |
| Opulent-Communicant | Yes | 29.99 |
| wqujvj | No | 21 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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