Analytics
Yes is at 17%, down 31 points from 48% when the market opened on 10 Jan 2026.
Across the 265 daily closes on record from 10 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (30 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 62.5% on 16 Jul 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 24 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 13.5%; a month before, 13%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 18% on 3 May 2026.
It is one of 23 markets under “Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?”.
$308.94 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $6.6K since listing. The order book holds $448.91, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 146 trades, $130.52 bought Yes and $2.92K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 275 shares; the largest No position is GUINESS123 with 193. Ten wallets hold 80.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Jan 2027, 64 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 265 points, 10 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2026 | 48.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 17.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 274.79 |
| GUINESS123 | No | 193 |
| thursdays | No | 135 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-year
11 more markets, none above 11.2%.
| PCMTest |
| No |
| 117.5 |
| oliman2 | No | 81.17 |
| KuloTrade | Yes | 64.94 |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 55.24 |
| Fihdrzgdd | Yes | 45 |
| doug12345 | No | 38.92 |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | Yes | 35.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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