Analytics
Yes is at 84.5%, up 22 points from 62.5% when the market opened on 24 Jul 2026.
Across the 92 daily closes on record from 24 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 95.5% on 16 Oct 2026 and the lowest 62.5% on 24 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 95.5%; a month before, 95%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 78.5% on 25 Jul 2026.
Toy Story 5 is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?”, ahead of The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping at 5.5%.
$13.57K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $44.49K since listing. The order book holds $2.51K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 424 trades, $10.28K bought Yes and $1.06K bought No; the largest was a $2.5K buy of Yes at 93.0¢.
The largest Yes position is ImJustKen with 12.5K shares; the largest No position is jimmer-fredette with 7.6K. Ten wallets hold 94.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 92 points, 24 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 62.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 84.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 12.51K |
| jimmer-fredette | No | 7.57K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 |
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-movie-has-3rd-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026-20260722232204873
| No |
| 4.23K |
| Gamble.and.bankurpt | Yes | 1.24K |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 564.69 |
| Anjun | No | 555 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 378.18 |
| Dr.PNL | No | 300 |
| papakilofoxtrot | No | 293.31 |
| Past-Truth | No | 249.38 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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