Analytics
Yes is at 0.1%, down 10 points from 10.5% when the market opened on 24 Jul 2026.
Across the 94 daily closes on record from 24 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 10.5% on 24 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 26 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.1%; a month before, 0.1%. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 5% on 25 Jul 2026.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day ranks fifth of the 6 outcomes in “Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?”. Toy Story 5 leads at 84.5%; The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping is at 5.5%.
$2.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $3.27K, with a 0.05% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 52 trades, $26.21 bought Yes and $907.13 bought No.
The largest Yes position is balthazar with 700 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 4.2K. Ten wallets hold 85.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 94 points, 24 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 10.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.23K |
| balthazar | Yes | 700 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 528.05 |
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-movie-has-3rd-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026-20260722232204873
| qwen300.fund |
| Yes |
| 420 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 300 |
| Lucerys | Yes | 276.6 |
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 269.25 |
| graynotebook19 | Yes | 180 |
| smallreceipt | Yes | 156.47 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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