Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 16% on 10 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 55 daily closes on record from 10 Dec 2025 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 19% on 24 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.9% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 7% on 25 Jan 2026. $95.47K traded over the market's life.
45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 28, 1:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 55 points, 10 Dec 2025 – 1 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Dec 2025 | 16.0% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 11.58K |
| drew263 | Yes | 1.16K |
| gordik06 | Yes | 600.33 |
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/). 2. Which party will win the House in 2026? This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 342 |
| Nutritious-Replica | Yes | 166.67 |
| ggfuked | Yes | 153.29 |
| Rural-Electricity | Yes | 142.86 |
| Fade-me | Yes | 138.16 |
| Fortunate-Purse | Yes | 136.67 |
| ulz | Yes | 126.25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026
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