
Yes is at 93%, up 72 points from 21% when the market opened on 10 Dec 2025.
Across the 298 daily closes on record from 10 Dec 2025 to 30 Oct 2026 (27 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 94.7% on 4 Oct 2026 and the lowest 4.3% on 24 Jan 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 92.5%; a month before, 93.1%. Its largest one-day move was 62 points up, to 66.2% on 25 Jan 2026.
Shutdown & Democratic Party is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?”, ahead of Shutdown & Republican Party at 7%.
$1.74K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $69.94K since listing. The order book holds $110.87K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $10.08K bought Yes and $560.24 bought No; the largest was a $1.95K buy of Yes at 89.5¢.
The largest Yes position is ScottyNooo with 2.5K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 11.6K. Ten wallets hold 78% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Feb 2027, 94 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:49 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 298 points, 10 Dec 2025 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Dec 2025 | 21.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 93.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 11.58K |
| ScottyNooo | Yes | 2.53K |
| FlyingPlaty | Yes | 2.19K |
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/). 2. Which party will win the House in 2026? This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
| Breezy-Entrance |
| Yes |
| 2K |
| wagwanshawty | Yes | 1.47K |
| RobotGamma | Yes | 1K |
| Rundown-Regard | No | 947.85 |
| SitsToPee | No | 854.4 |
| BetterFish | Yes | 755.21 |
| failstober | Yes | 643.45 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026
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