Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026?

techResolved

No, settled Oct 12, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$22.9K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 12, 2026 UTC

Topic roomBest AI Model

Where it stands

Resolved No on 12 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 73.5%. Yes opened at 26% on 29 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 29 Sep 2026 to 12 Oct 2026, the highest close was 41.5% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 13% on 30 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 22.5% on 7 Oct 2026. $22.91K traded over the market's life.

40 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 13, 6:59 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 29 Sep 2026 – 12 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–50%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	4.35K
e46m3	Yes	1.55K
DOG-UndressedVersion	Yes	672.73
tradetosurvive1	Yes	225.38

10 of 40 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's "Watermelon" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.