Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 14 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 81 daily closes on record from 14 Oct 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 18.5% on 17 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6.3 points down, to 8.5% on 16 Dec 2025. $52.73K traded over the market's life.
61 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 81 points, 14 Oct 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2025 | 16.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 13.18K |
| gopfan2 | Yes | 2.6K |
| less is more | Yes | 1.53K |
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 13, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-7pt0-or-above-earthquakes-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 738.73 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 529 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 248.99 |
| JoseStrickland4151 | Yes | 247 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 201.39 |
| sunshines | Yes | 200 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 168 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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