Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 41% on 27 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 27 May 2026 to 1 Jul 2026, the highest close was 41.5% on 11 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.9% on 1 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 41.5% on 11 Jun 2026. $3.2K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 10:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 May 2026 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 May 2026 | 41.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.15K |
| Golden Voyager 2264 | Yes | 120 |
| weatherlover21 | Yes | 112 |
| yiuyoo | Yes | 95 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/of-chatgpt-outage-days-in-june-2026
| Lavincey | Yes | 79.42 |
| wozaitaibei | Yes | 70 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 44.68 |
| Rapid Maven E07A | Yes | 42 |
| Colala | Yes | 30.01 |
| Crimson Kestrel EEA2 | Yes | 30 |
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