Analytics
Yes is at 47.5%, up 8 points from 39.5% when the market opened on 3 Jan 2026.
Across the 294 daily closes on record from 3 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 62.5% on 12 Feb 2026 and the lowest 14.5% on 22 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 46%; a month before, 48.5%. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 19.5% on 4 Sep 2026.
1 is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?”, ahead of 0 at 32.5%.
$275.44K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $401.97, with a 35.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.17K bought Yes and $1.5K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Second-Hand-Presume with 1.7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 11K. Ten wallets hold 71% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 3:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 294 points, 3 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2026 | 39.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 47.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 11.03K |
| Second-Hand-Presume | Yes | 1.66K |
| LieutenantMiloMinderbinder | Yes | 1.55K |
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-large-volcano-eruption-vei-4-in-2026-657
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes | 1.3K |
| DEGENKHAN | Yes | 1.03K |
| donthackme | Yes | 978.44 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 800 |
| MatthewRivers1809 | Yes | 767 |
| AlyssaSullivan5359 | No | 734 |
| Stas77 | Yes | 692.7 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
