Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 1 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 178 daily closes on record from 1 Jan 2026 to 18 Jul 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 9.8% on 23 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 18 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.1 points down, to 3.5% on 25 Mar 2026. $101.09K traded over the market's life.
113 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 19, 7:47 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 178 points, 1 Jan 2026 – 18 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2026 | 7.5% |
| 18 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 24.85K |
| Snow-White | Yes | 6.62K |
| yangguang0511 | Yes | 3K |
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-7pt0-or-above-earthquakes-in-2026
| frame135 | Yes | 2.4K |
| zortak | Yes | 2.17K |
| Monstredu38 | Yes | 1.3K |
| ibuyculture | Yes | 1.25K |
| labistiiia | Yes | 1K |
| norealtime | Yes | 1K |
| huyewell | Yes | 909 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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