Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jul 31, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$13.1K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jul 31, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 31 Jul 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 77.5%. Yes opened at 53% on 15 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 16 daily closes on record from 15 Jul 2026 to 31 Jul 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 89.5% on 16 Jul 2026 and the lowest 13% on 23 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 52 points up, to 80.5% on 25 Jul 2026. $13.12K traded over the market's life.

15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 1, 2:17 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 15 Jul 2026 – 31 Jul 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
15 Jul 2026	53.0%
31 Jul 2026	77.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
fElon	No	1.18K
PenniesDozer	No	246.94
00088000	No	181
Prime-Browsing	No	133

10 of 15 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.