Will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?

Resolved

Yes, settled Mar 27, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$54.0K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Mar 27, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 27 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96.2%. Yes opened at 62% on 3 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 24 daily closes on record from 3 Mar 2026 to 27 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 97.1% on 26 Mar 2026 and the lowest 49% on 6 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 73.5% on 7 Mar 2026. $54K traded over the market's life.

30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 28, 3:07 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 3 Mar 2026 – 27 Mar 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
3 Mar 2026	62.0%
27 Mar 2026	96.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
qianbeicelue	No	300
0xRocket666	No	200
5atka	No	196.46

10 of 30 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.