Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Resolved

No, settled Jun 2, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$131.8K

Resolved

Settled

Jun 2, 2026 UTC

Topic roomStrait of Hormuz

Where it stands

Resolved No on 2 Jun 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 20% on 1 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 2 Jun 2026, the highest close was 23.1% on 7 May 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 23.1% on 7 May 2026. $131.83K traded over the market's life.

56 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jun 3, 1:06 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 1 May 2026 – 2 Jun 2026, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 May 2026	20.0%
2 Jun 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	45.12K
Vorian	Yes	8.72K
endualipa	Yes	2.43K

10 of 56 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.