Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 12% on 10 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 10 Mar 2026 to 5 Apr 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 25.5% on 11 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 5 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 10% on 12 Mar 2026. $93.48K traded over the market's life.
56 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 8, 9:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 10 Mar 2026 – 5 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | 12.0% |
| 5 Apr 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 22.41K |
| Leon8899 | Yes | 10K |
| Get10 | Yes | 2.67K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-march
| Yes |
| 2.37K |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 2K |
| steamrolling | Yes | 1.96K |
| Lighthearted-Communicant | Yes | 918.51 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 552.43 |
| Amber Quasar 2D4B | Yes | 500 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 499.98 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
